[Gonzopozo]

Playing the Pairs

I read recently where statistically just over 40% of the pre-draw hands dealt in video poker contain a pair. This can be either a “high” pair (jacks or better) or “low” pair, of course, but a pair it is. That’s almost half. With this many hands, a player should know what his chances are with the various options of what to hold. It turns out that the “low” pair is most frequent, occurring in about 30% of the pre-draw hands. So what to do?

Logically, your best play differs somewhat depending on whether it’s a low pair or high pair, but in general you hold the pair.

There’s only six hands that when dealt you should actually break up the low pair to try and fill in. They are:

4 cards to a royal
4 cards to a straight flush (outside)
4 cards to a straight flush (inside)
3 cards to a royal
4 cards to a flush
4 cards to a straight (outside only)

That’s it. Not much, I’d say. The options given that you are dealt a “high” pair are even less. The only time that you should (statistically speaking) break up the high pair is when dealt:

4 cards to a royal
4 cards to a straight flush (outside)
4 cards to a straight flush (inside)

Now for the bad news. When dealt that low pair you’re still going to lose 71% of the time. Only 11% of the draws will result in three of a kind and only 1% of the draws will give you four. Not great odds, but with 40% of the pre-draw hands having a pair it’s comforting (kinda) to know how to make the best of a bad situation.